Photo by Ali Dashti
The Action Network tracked McDonald’s soft-serve machine status for nearly six years across 492 cities and all 50 states to answer the question every drive-thru raises: will the machine actually be working?
Short answer: nationally, it’s down about 10.4% of the time. But where you live dramatically impacts your chances.
Fun Findings
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Cleveland, Tennessee is the broken-machine capital of America, with implied odds of a downed machine of 46.9%, nearly a coin flip.
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Ashland, Kentucky is soft-serve heaven at just 2.1%.
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Mississippi is the worst state overall (34.0%); Minnesota is the best (11.5%).
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We built a searchable tool so readers can look up their own city.
5 Cities Most Likely To Have a Broken Machine
|
Rank |
City |
Implied Probability It’s Down |
|
1 |
Cleveland, TN |
46.90% |
|
2 |
Albany, GA |
42.40% |
|
3 |
Gulfport, MS |
39.70% |
|
4 |
Kalamazoo, MI |
38.60% |
|
5 |
Puyallup, WA |
37.60% |
5 Cities Least Likely To Have a Broken Machine
|
Rank |
City |
Implied Probability It’s Down |
|
1 |
Ashland, KY |
2.10% |
|
2 |
Yakima, WA |
2.80% |
|
3 |
Germantown, MD |
2.80% |
|
4 |
Costa Mesa, CA |
3.00% |
|
5 |
Fairfield, CA |
3.20% |
You can explore the full interactive piece, including a searchable tool for all cities and a map of all 50 states, here.
Methodology:
We analyzed daily snapshots of publicly reported McDonald’s soft-serve machine status (Oct 2020–July 2026, 7.86 million location checks) into implied probability for each city and state.
About:
The Action Network is a leading sports analytics and media platform delivering data-driven insights, betting analysis, and fan-focused reporting. We turn data into odds on everything fans care about, from the final score to whether the ice cream machine will actually be working.