Study Reveals the U.S. States Where Residents are the Most (and the Least) Likely to Face Jail – Michigan Ranks 35th

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Article courtesy of mcandrewslegal.com.

• Individuals in Hawaii are at the lowest risk of prosecution, with the state assigned the lowest score in a new comprehensive ranking. 
• South Dakota reports the highest likelihood of criminal prosecution, based on scaled arrests, court filings, and incarceration rates.
• Mississippi and Louisiana see the highest incarceration rates in the U.S., with over 1,000 incarcerations per 100,000 people residents.

Criminal defense lawyer mcandrewslegal.com reveals criminal prosecution risk across the U.S., based on arrest rates, court filings, and incarcerations per 100,000 people. Each state was scored out of 100 and ranked to form the index.

Across the U.S., the data indicates 335.25 arrests per 100,000 residents, 588.78 incarcerations, and 22.39 criminal court filings per 100,000 residents.

Michigan’s findings:

Michigan ranks 35th with a score of 41.15, reporting 323.03 arrests, 8.88 criminal court filings, and 529.39 incarcerations per 100,000 residents. All three figures are close to national averages, keeping Michigan firmly in the middle-to-lower tier nationally.

Compared with neighbors, Michigan’s risk is higher than Illinois (44th place, score 29.17) and Minnesota (38th place, score 37.39) – but lower than Indiana (36th place, score 40.55), Ohio (34th place, score 42.50), and Wisconsin (26th place, score 48.96). Michigan therefore sits in a relatively moderate position in the Great Lakes region.

Top 10 States with the Highest Criminal Prosecution Likelihood

South Dakota leads the nation for criminal prosecution with a score of 85.14 out of 100. The state reports 555.02 arrests and 798.77 incarcerations per 100,000 people, and records 60.78 criminal court filings.

Arkansas follows in second with a 77.62 score, showing a high arrest rate of 528.20 and the third-highest incarceration rate at 899.99 per 100,000 residents. Criminal court filings stand at 21.92 per 100,000 people.

Oklahoma ranks third, scoring 76.13, driven by 443.36 arrests and the fourth-highest incarceration rate of 888.51 per 100,000 people. The state also records 34.62 criminal court filings per 100,000 people.

Scoring 75.83, North Dakota comes with the highest arrest rate among all states at 666.83. Its incarceration rate is lower at 547.72, with 48.96 court filings per 100,000 residents.

Wyoming secures fifth place with a 74.73 score, recording 498.77 arrests and 36.93 court filings per 100,000 people. The state has a high incarceration rate of 777.38.

Montana is sixth with a 73.05 score (451.79 arrests, 38.69 court filings and 748.13 incarcerations per 100,000 people), while Kentucky is seventh with a 69.54 score, recording 442.91 arrests and 874.1 incarcerations, but only 20.07 court filings per 100,000 residents.

Alabama ranks eighth with 68.16, showing 382.60 arrests and 23.54 court filings per 100,000 people, maintaining a high incarceration rate of 883.59.

Mississippi comes in ninth, scoring 66.84 and recording 298.48 arrests and 1,018.67 incarcerations per 100,000 residents.

Louisiana rounds out the top ten states with the highest prosecution risk with a 66.82 score, recording the nation’s highest incarceration rate at 1,065.15 per 100,000 people.

Top 10 States with the Lowest Criminal Prosecution Likelihood

At the opposite end, Hawaii ranks last with a 12.90 score, showing the lowest arrest rate at just 46.34 and a relatively low incarceration rate of 365.32 per 100,000 people.

Massachusetts is second-to-last with a 17.72 score, recording 247.87 arrests per 100,000 people but the second-lowest incarceration rate at 235.39. Connecticut follows with 24.22, showing 247.71 arrests and 6.67 court filings per 100,000 residents, as well as an incarceration rate of 319.64.

Nevada is next with a 24.75 score and 148.61 arrests per 100,000 people – though its incarceration rate is higher at 592.81 per 100,000 people.

Rounding out the five states with the lowest prosecution likelihood is New Jersey scoring 27.79. The state sees 287.06 arrests but only 7.17 court filings per 100,000 residents.

One particularly notable finding is the disconnect between arrest rates and actual incarceration in certain states. Florida ranks 40th overall with a 36.30 out of 100 score, yet has the fifth-highest incarceration rate at 670.60 per 100,000 people, despite having the second-lowest arrest rate at just 41.15 per 100,000 people residents.

“These findings clearly show which states take a more aggressive approach to criminal prosecution,” said Keith E. McAndrews, Founding Attorney at mcandrewslegal.com. “Citizens in states like South Dakota and Arkansas face a much higher risk of prosecution than those in Hawaii or Massachusetts.

“Two people committing identical acts might face very different outcomes depending on geography. States with higher scores typically combine aggressive arrest practices with higher incarceration rates, creating environments where residents face greater risk of entering the criminal justice system.”

Methodology: 

The index considers 2022 arrests, Apr 2024–Mar 2025 federal filings, and 2024 incarcerated population data for each state, calculated per-100,000 rates using Census estimates, standardized them on a 0–10 scale, and forms a composite score out of 100.

Data Collection and Time Periods

• Arrests (2022) were gathered from the ICPSR Study 39062 archive, which provided statewide counts by offense: https://archive.icpsr.umich.edu/view/studies/39062/explore-data
• Criminal defendants filed (Apr 2024 – Mar 2025) were retrieved from the Federal Judicial Caseload Statistics, Table D-3, on the US Courts website: https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/data-tables/2025/03/31/federal-judicial-caseload-statistics/d-3
• Incarcerated population (2024) data were gathered from the Prison Policy Initiative’s 2024 state appendix: https://www.prisonpolicy.org/global/appendix_states_2024.html

Complete State Rankings by Prosecution Risk