The Best US Metro Areas for Business Survival Revealed, with Grand Rapids Ranking Second

Lancaster, Pennsylvania, leads the 100 largest US metros with a first-five-year business survival rate of 75.14%
Grand Rapids and Harrisburg complete the top three, while no metro in the top ten ranks among the 25 largest business markets
St. Louis comes last at 58.37%, while New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Atlanta all appear in the bottom ten

A huge customer base can make a major city look like the obvious place to start a business. More potential buyers, larger talent pools and established delivery networks can all help a company get off the ground. But size alone does not guarantee that a new business will last.

With this in mind, a new study by ecommerce experts Build Your Store compared the 100 most populous metro areas in the US to reveal where new establishments are most likely to remain active during their first five years.

The research used the US Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics. The first-five-year survival rate compares pooled new establishments with those still active at ages one to five. Lancaster, Pennsylvania, tops the ranking at 75.14%, while St. Louis comes last at 58.37%.

None of the ten highest-ranking metros is among the study’s 25 largest business markets by total establishment count. By contrast, New York, Los Angeles, Miami, and Atlanta are all among the ten largest markets and appear in the bottom ten for early business survival.

The 10 metros with the highest first-five-year survival rates

Rank	Metro area	State(s)	First-five-year survival	New establishments	Still active, ages 1-5	Business-market size rank
1	Lancaster	PA	75.14%	11,914	8,952	96
2	Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood	MI	72.73%	23,904	17,385	48
3	Harrisburg-Carlisle	PA	72.19%	12,864	9,287	89
4	Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers	AR	71.40%	15,477	11,051	95
5	Portland-South Portland	ME	71.19%	17,578	12,514	75
6	Omaha	NE-IA	70.87%	24,684	17,494	55
7	Cincinnati	OH-KY-IN	70.78%	44,850	31,744	35
8	Wichita	KS	70.64%	14,193	10,026	84
9	Knoxville	TN	70.57%	18,667	13,173	67
10	Madison	WI	70.49%	15,925	11,226	78

Lancaster takes first place with a first-five-year survival rate of 75.14%. Across the pooled data, 8,952 establishments were still active at ages one to five from a base of 11,914 new establishments. The Pennsylvania metro finishes 2.41 percentage points ahead of every other area analyzed. It is also one of the smaller business markets in the study, ranking 96th out of 100 by its 12,869 total establishments in 2023.

Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood follows in second place with a survival rate of 72.73%. The pooled figures cover 23,904 new establishments, of which 17,385 were still active during ages one to five. The Michigan metro ranks 48th by total establishment count, making it considerably larger than Lancaster.

Harrisburg-Carlisle takes third place at 72.19%, giving Pennsylvania two of the three highest-ranking metros. Its pooled base includes 12,864 new establishments, with 9,287 still active at ages one to five.

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers ranks fourth with a first-five-year survival rate of 71.40%. The Arkansas metro has 12,951 total establishments in 2023, making it the 95th-largest business market analyzed. Despite its smaller size, it outperforms every major Southern metro in the study.

Portland-South Portland follows in fifth place at 71.19%. Of the 17,578 pooled new establishments included, 12,514 were still active during their first five years. It is the only New England metro to reach the top ten.

Omaha places sixth with a survival rate of 70.87%. The metro, which crosses Nebraska and Iowa, records 17,494 active establishments aged one to five from a pooled opening base of 24,684.

Cincinnati comes seventh at 70.78%. It has the largest new-establishment base among the top ten, covering 44,850 openings and 31,744 establishments still active at ages one to five. It is also the largest business market in the leading group, ranking 35th by total establishments.

Wichita ranks eighth with a first-five-year rate of 70.64%. The Kansas metro records 10,026 establishments still active during ages one to five from a pooled base of 14,193 new establishments.

Knoxville follows closely in ninth place at 70.57%. It is the second Southern metro in the top ten, after Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, with 13,173 establishments still active from 18,667 new openings.

Madison completes the top ten with a first-five-year survival rate of 70.49%. Its result is based on 15,925 new establishments, of which 11,226 remained active during ages one to five.

The 10 metros with the lowest first-five-year survival rates

Rank	Metro area	State(s)	First-five-year survival	New establishments	Still active, ages 1-5	Business-market size rank
1	St. Louis	MO-IL	58.37%	79,394	46,344	23
2	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach	FL	61.86%	274,093	169,541	4
3	New York-Newark-Jersey City	NY-NJ	62.81%	617,892	388,099	1
4	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford	FL	63.70%	99,917	63,650	20
5	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	CA	64.26%	473,019	303,936	2
6	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell	GA	64.33%	195,579	125,823	8
7	Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas	NV	64.46%	69,792	44,985	30
8	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	CA	64.49%	57,975	37,387	34
9	Memphis	TN-MS-AR	64.70%	27,214	17,607	50
10	Kansas City	MO-KS	65.02%	59,710	38,824	28

St. Louis records the lowest first-five-year survival rate in the study, at 58.37%. Of the 79,394 pooled new establishments included in the calculation, 46,344 were still active at ages one to five. The metro finishes 16.77 percentage points behind Lancaster and 3.49 points below Miami, giving St. Louis the clearest separation at either end of the ranking.

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach has the second-lowest result, at 61.86%. It is also the fourth-largest business market analyzed, with 191,439 total establishments in 2023. Its pooled figures cover 274,093 new establishments and 169,541 still active during ages one to five.

New York-Newark-Jersey City ranks third from the bottom with a rate of 62.81%. It is by far the largest market in the study, with 499,364 total establishments in 2023. The survival calculation covers 617,892 new establishments, of which 388,099 were active at ages one to five.

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford comes fourth from the bottom at 63.70%. Its rate is based on 99,917 new establishments and 63,650 that were still active during their first five years.

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim follows at 64.26%. The second-largest business market analyzed has 351,239 total establishments in 2023, yet it places among the five weakest metros for early survival.

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell ranks sixth from the bottom with a rate of 64.33%. It is another large market to appear near the foot of the table, ranking eighth by total establishments.

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas follows closely at 64.46%. Of its 69,792 pooled new establishments, 44,985 were still active at ages one to five.

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara records a first-five-year survival rate of 64.49%. This places the center of Silicon Valley eighth from the bottom, narrowly ahead of Las Vegas.

Memphis ranks ninth from the bottom at 64.70%. The cross-state metro records 17,607 active establishments aged one to five from a pooled opening base of 27,214.

Kansas City completes the bottom ten with a survival rate of 65.02%. Its pooled figures include 59,710 new establishments, with 38,824 still active during ages one to five.

Commenting on the findings, Lior Pozin, Co-Founder and CEO of Build Your Store, said: “Lancaster’s lead is striking because it is not one of the country’s biggest business markets. It ranks 96th by total establishments, yet it has the strongest early survival rate and finishes more than two percentage points ahead of every other metro analyzed.

“Pennsylvania also stands out more broadly. Lancaster ranks first, Harrisburg third and Pittsburgh 14th, giving the state three metros near the top of the table.

“The results from the largest markets are equally interesting. New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Atlanta are all among the ten biggest business markets analyzed, but each appears in the bottom ten for early survival.

“That does not mean large metros are bad places to start a business. They offer huge customer bases, deep talent pools and well-developed infrastructure. But founders may also face higher overheads, more competition and greater pressure to acquire customers quickly.

“For ecommerce businesses, the local customer base does not define how far the company can grow, but location still matters. Staffing, storage, fulfillment, delivery networks and operating costs remain connected to where the business is based.

“A smaller metro can give an online founder access to lower operating costs while still allowing them to sell nationally. Wherever a company is based, the fundamentals remain the same: validate demand, protect margins, control customer acquisition costs and give buyers a reason to return.”

Methodology and sources

Build Your Store analyzed the US Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics, using the MSA by Establishment Age Coarse table from the 2023 vintage.

The study covered the 100 most populous US metro areas. The first-five-year survival rate was calculated by comparing pooled new establishments with establishments still active at ages one to five. Metros were then ranked from highest to lowest.

The figures count employer establishments rather than individual companies, meaning businesses with several locations may appear more than once. The rate measures whether an establishment remained active, not whether it was profitable or growing.

Full ranking

Rank	Metro area	State(s)	First-five-year survival	New establishments	Still active, ages 1-5	Total establishments, 2023	Size rank
1	Lancaster	PA	75.14%	11,914	8,952	12,869	96
2	Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood	MI	72.73%	23,904	17,385	25,098	48
3	Harrisburg-Carlisle	PA	72.19%	12,864	9,287	13,295	89
4	Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers	AR	71.40%	15,477	11,051	12,951	95
5	Portland-South Portland	ME	71.19%	17,578	12,514	16,925	75
6	Omaha	NE-IA	70.87%	24,684	17,494	22,729	55
7	Cincinnati	OH-KY-IN	70.78%	44,850	31,744	44,447	35
8	Wichita	KS	70.64%	14,193	10,026	14,149	84
9	Knoxville	TN	70.57%	18,667	13,173	18,182	67
10	Madison	WI	70.49%	15,925	11,226	16,113	78
11	Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek	OH	70.48%	14,263	10,052	15,205	80
12	Des Moines-West Des Moines	IA	70.46%	19,701	13,882	16,897	76
13	Greenville-Anderson-Greer	SC	70.20%	23,400	16,426	20,599	58
14	Pittsburgh	PA	70.18%	52,050	36,530	56,781	26
15	Milwaukee-Waukesha	WI	70.16%	37,598	26,378	36,256	39
16	Winston-Salem	NC	69.97%	13,685	9,575	13,075	93
17	Columbus	OH	69.90%	47,541	33,229	42,666	36
18	Greensboro-High Point	NC	69.84%	17,398	12,150	17,118	74
19	Reno	NV	69.60%	16,676	11,607	13,612	86
20	Birmingham	AL	69.58%	26,106	18,165	25,180	47
21	Louisville/Jefferson County	KY-IN	69.52%	30,789	21,404	28,820	45
22	Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton	PA-NJ	69.38%	17,196	11,931	17,163	73
23	Fresno	CA	69.30%	22,358	15,495	19,489	62
24	Boise City	ID	69.24%	28,388	19,655	20,623	57
25	Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin	TN	69.23%	57,130	39,550	46,302	32
26	Columbia	SC	69.18%	18,514	12,807	17,305	70
27	Tucson	AZ	69.16%	20,564	14,221	19,169	64
28	Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood	IN	69.08%	52,548	36,300	46,098	33
29	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	TX	69.06%	83,556	57,705	58,687	25
30	Raleigh-Cary	NC	69.04%	44,470	30,702	34,744	41
31	Charleston-North Charleston	SC	68.91%	26,401	18,192	20,399	59
32	Baton Rouge	LA	68.80%	19,247	13,241	18,226	66
33	Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford	CT	68.71%	25,850	17,761	25,875	46
34	Worcester	MA	68.61%	17,863	12,256	17,262	71
35	Ogden	UT	68.55%	16,950	11,619	13,267	90
36	Providence-Warwick	RI-MA	68.47%	38,243	26,186	38,648	38
37	Akron	OH	68.47%	13,998	9,584	15,030	82
38	Baltimore-Columbia-Towson	MD	68.42%	66,323	45,380	62,275	24
39	New Haven	CT	68.41%	12,436	8,507	12,759	97
40	New Orleans-Metairie	LA	68.39%	23,653	16,176	23,067	54
41	Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk	VA-NC	68.25%	39,267	26,800	36,041	40
42	Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway	AR	68.24%	19,023	12,981	17,387	69
43	Santa Rosa-Petaluma	CA	68.24%	14,867	10,145	13,257	91
44	Tulsa	OK	68.15%	25,278	17,227	23,317	53
45	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington	MN-WI	68.12%	92,288	62,868	86,930	15
46	San Antonio-New Braunfels	TX	68.12%	58,936	40,146	47,442	29
47	Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh	NY	68.11%	17,398	11,850	16,177	77
48	Albuquerque	NM	68.09%	19,052	12,972	17,724	68
49	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia	NC-SC	68.08%	82,492	56,157	63,994	22
50	El Paso	TX	68.07%	17,710	12,055	15,068	81
51	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	MA-NH	68.06%	130,125	88,563	122,046	10
52	Richmond	VA	68.05%	34,094	23,202	30,606	44
53	Jackson	MS	68.02%	13,613	9,260	13,222	92
54	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	PA-NJ-DE-MD	67.90%	155,828	105,812	139,489	9
55	Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury	CT	67.90%	25,687	17,442	24,151	51
56	Naples-Marco Island	FL	67.89%	16,416	11,144	12,467	99
57	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura	CA	67.86%	23,114	15,685	20,040	60
58	Durham-Chapel Hill	NC	67.67%	15,376	10,405	12,716	98
59	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	DC-VA-MD-WV	67.58%	167,354	113,097	143,692	7
60	Oklahoma City	OK	67.56%	39,330	26,570	34,087	42
61	Bakersfield-Delano	CA	67.50%	15,823	10,680	13,016	94
62	Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler	AZ	67.43%	132,093	89,072	99,549	12
63	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	IL-IN	67.27%	244,423	164,432	218,484	3
64	Spokane-Spokane Valley	WA	67.24%	15,669	10,536	13,443	87
65	Salt Lake City-Murray	UT	67.24%	41,630	27,991	32,521	43
66	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro	OR-WA	67.23%	80,165	53,891	66,059	21
67	Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom	CA	67.14%	63,725	42,785	49,901	27
68	North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota	FL	67.13%	31,481	21,132	23,704	52
69	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	TX	67.08%	230,729	154,768	169,594	5
70	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	CA	67.07%	104,141	69,842	79,101	19
71	Syracuse	NY	66.76%	12,474	8,327	13,318	88
72	Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach	FL	66.75%	19,430	12,970	15,250	79
73	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	TX	66.72%	191,924	128,057	145,576	6
74	Rochester	NY	66.49%	21,671	14,410	21,763	56
75	San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad	CA	66.44%	106,552	70,789	82,322	16
76	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	WA	66.43%	125,045	83,071	98,010	13
77	Cleveland	OH	66.37%	44,487	29,527	46,490	31
78	Cape Coral-Fort Myers	FL	66.37%	27,306	18,123	19,778	61
79	Albany-Schenectady-Troy	NY	66.11%	19,733	13,045	19,455	63
80	Jacksonville	FL	66.10%	52,242	34,532	39,137	37
81	Buffalo-Cheektowaga	NY	66.08%	23,787	15,718	24,570	49
82	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn	MI	65.96%	98,696	65,100	91,417	14
83	Provo-Orem-Lehi	UT	65.74%	22,468	14,771	14,842	83
84	Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville	FL	65.67%	17,393	11,422	13,843	85
85	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater	FL	65.64%	110,339	72,431	80,492	17
86	Denver-Aurora-Centennial	CO	65.63%	112,613	73,904	80,195	18
87	Lakeland-Winter Haven	FL	65.61%	16,196	10,626	12,388	100
88	San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont	CA	65.56%	150,171	98,457	119,362	11
89	Urban Honolulu	HI	65.28%	19,014	12,413	19,118	65
90	Colorado Springs	CO	65.20%	23,346	15,222	17,204	72
91	Kansas City	MO-KS	65.02%	59,710	38,824	49,800	28
92	Memphis	TN-MS-AR	64.70%	27,214	17,607	24,355	50
93	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	CA	64.49%	57,975	37,387	44,858	34
94	Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas	NV	64.46%	69,792	44,985	47,265	30
95	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell	GA	64.33%	195,579	125,823	142,652	8
96	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	CA	64.26%	473,019	303,936	351,239	2
97	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford	FL	63.70%	99,917	63,650	68,682	20
98	New York-Newark-Jersey City	NY-NJ	62.81%	617,892	388,099	499,364	1
99	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach	FL	61.86%	274,093	169,541	191,439	4
100	St. Louis	MO-IL	58.37%	79,394	46,344	63,281	23

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The Best US Metro Areas for Business Survival Revealed, with Grand Rapids Ranking Second

The 10 metros with the highest first-five-year survival rates